Final 2026 Field of 64 & Bubble Projections
One more day until we hit the holiday that is Selection Monday and the bracket is released, which means one last Field of 64 projection for the 2026 season. I’ll go a little more into depth on these ones being that it is the very last projection before projections are officially rendered useless. As always, keep in mind that two teams from the same conference cannot be grouped into the same Regional, and there are some stipulations with how the #1-32 ranked teams are seeded. Teams in the #29-32 range will be placed into Regionals with teams that are ranked #1-4, #25-28 going with #5-8 and so on.
Bubble Watch
Last Four In: NC State, Mercer, Pittsburgh, Kent State
First Four Out: Virginia, Texas State, Troy, Gonzaga
Next Four Out: Michigan, TCU, Kentucky, Miami (OH)
Gavin Butler’s Explanations:
Virginia: The Cavaliers appeared to be a lock to make the tournament for much of this season before sputtering down the stretch. The early-season series win against UNC may be a saving grace, and I was on the verge of putting them in this field and would deem them my First Four Out team with the best argument to be inside the field (that is, if Troy does not win the Sun Belt later today and secure the auto bid). Pittsburgh is the team I looked right to in the Last Four In based on their 11-19 record compared to UVA’s slightly better 14-16. However, Pitt’s April sweep over UVA may account for a lot here, as well as both teams’ performance in the ACC Tournament. Virginia’s only win in the postseason came against Duke who finished last in the ACC, while Pitt picked up wins against FSU who is a sure bet to host, and Wake Forest who is top 20 in both RPI and DSR (two metrics which the committee will be incredibly reliant upon to devise the bracket this year). If UCSB had won the Big West and prevented a stolen bid, I believe I would certainly have Virginia on the other side of this bubble. Unfortunately, I project AJ Gracia and the Cavaliers to miss the dance this season.
Mercer/Kent State: TheRundownPod’s projections have both the Bears and Golden Flashes playing in the tournament this season despite other well-known projections placing these teams just outside the field. Mercer did have a rough showing in the SoCon Tournament which hurts their chances significantly, but a pedigree win over Georgia Tech and winning 18 of their last 19 regular season games could be enough. Series wins against quality mid-majors in Wofford (sweep), Samford, Troy, and The Citadel and a 44-15 record also further prove their right to belong in this tournament, although I will say they are a true bubble team. Kent State is another tough one. As Mercer’s postseason losses to The Citadel will hurt them, so will Kent State’s losses to Toledo. However, they are another team like Mercer that has shown their pedigree with a 42-15 record with notable wins. The Golden Flashes showed everyone their capabilities with a resoundingly loud series win against Tennessee back in February, immediately followed that with a two game sweep of a solid mid-major in Rhode Island, and also posted midweek wins against Ohio State, Pitt, and Michigan. I have both of these teams in the field along with Pitt, but these are some of the teams I struggled most with on my bubble.
Regional Hosts: I think most of these are essentially locked up, with a few questions toward the end. Oregon is most likely locked as a host after making the Big 10 Championship game, and I think Kansas and WVU should be good based on their general Big 12 dominance throughout the season. Nebraska and Arkansas are the last two hosts I have in where it gets dicey. Mississippi State presents an excellent argument, as do the Beavers of Oregon State. I don’t think the Beavers’ general strength of schedule will be enough to compare, as their 64th SOS does not stack up well to Nebraska’s 38th or Arkansas’ 11th (SOS rankings per WarrenNolan.com). Late-season losses to UTRGV, CSUN, and Air Force and lacking the opportunity to do well in a conference tournament will leave the Beavs just outside the hosting field in my generously humble opinion. Mississippi State is where it really gets tough; they have played quality baseball all season long and a 5-0 combined record against Southern Miss and Ole Miss stands out to say the least. I do think Nebraska has done enough to secure a Lincoln Regional (and a small part of me thinks the committee will want to make them a host due to the Nebraska baseball fanbase that will show out to these games). Arkansas is the last hosting bubble team that I think the committee will be wary on, but I give them the edge over Miss St. due to the Razorbacks’ series win over the Bulldogs as well as both teams’ performance in the SEC Tournament; Mississippi State’s only win came against last-placed Missouri while Arkansas has made it to the championship game against Georgia, with wins against Tennessee and Auburn.
Now. let’s get into the fun part, as promised one last Field of 64 before Selection Monday comes tomorrow:
(* denotes confirmed conference champion)
(# denotes projected conference champion)
Los Angeles Regional
1.) UCLA#
2.) Arizona State
3.) UTSA
4.) Washington State#
Athens Regional
1.) Georgia#
2.) Boston College
3.) Louisiana#
4.) South Dakota State*
Atlanta Regional
1.) Georgia Tech#
2.) UCF
3.) Campbell#
4.) Milwaukee*
Chapel Hill Regional
1.) North Carolina
2.) Oklahoma
3.) East Carolina#
4.) Long Island#
Auburn Regional
1.) Auburn
2.) Cincinnati
3.) Virginia Tech
4.) Holy Cross*
Austin Regional
1.) Texas
2.) UC Santa Barbara
3.) Missouri State
4.) Northern Illinois*
Gainesville Regional
1.) Florida
2.) Miami
3.) Mercer
4.) Florida A&M#
Tuscaloosa Regional
1.) Alabama
2.) Jacksonville State#
3.) Liberty
4.) USC Upstate#
Hattiesburg Regional
1.) Southern Miss
2.) Ole Miss
3.) The Citadel*
4.) Yale*
College Station Regional
1.) Texas A&M
2.) Wake Forest
3.) Tarleton State*
4.) UIC#
Tallahassee Regional
1.) Florida State
2.) Coastal Carolina
3.) St. John’s#
4.) Little Rock#
Eugene Regional
1.) Oregon
2.) Tennessee
3.) St. Mary’s*
4.) Cal Poly#
Lawrence Regional
1.) Kansas*
2.) USC
3.) NC State
4.) Rider*
Morgantown Regional
1.) West Virginia
2.) Mississippi State
3.) Pittsburgh
4.) VCU#
Lincoln Regional
1.) Nebraska
2.) Oregon State
3.) Kent State
4.) Binghamton*
Fayetteville Regional
1.) Arkansas
2.) Oklahoma State
3.) Lamar*
4.) Lipscomb*
