Missouri State vs. Missouri Rivalry Rematch: Preview/Predictions
Missouri State’s Curry Sutherland delivers from the mound. (Photo by Michael Gulledge/Missouri State Athletics)
The Missouri State Bears (24-12, 12-3 C-USA) will be hosting the Missouri Tigers (20-17, 3-12 SEC) at Hammons Field on Wednesday, April 15th. First pitch is set for 6:30 PM EST. These two teams last faced off just eight days before, where Missouri took down the win at home 5-2. This should be a packed house for the midweek rivalry game, and is my choice for game of the night.
Projected Pitchers
Missouri: Keyler Gonzalez (3.21 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 18-4 K/BB)
Missouri St: Brock Lucas (7.36 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, 25-22 K/BB)
These teams are running back the same pitching matchup as last week, in which Gonzalez got the better of Lucas. Gonzalez has been solid all season, and it should be an absolute chess match every at-bat between him and the Bears’ offense. Missouri holds a slight edge in the all-time series at 37 wins to 32, which dates back to 1975. It may also be worth noting that the Tigers have taken six of the last seven battles. The Bears enter this game looking to sustain momentum following a series sweep at Delaware, while Missouri looks to get back on track and find their magic from last Tuesday after being swept vs. South Carolina.
Why Missouri could win:
Keyler Gonzalez can shove. He contributed six shutout innings with nine strikeouts and just one walk in last week’s contest, fooling Missouri State’s highly potent offense all game long. This was enough for the win last time alongside LF Donovan Jordan’s three run bomb in the third, and if he gets even a little bit of run support it could be enough again. Missouri has struggled in SEC play this season, but in a rivalry game against an opponent whose number they have had already the recipe could certainly be there.
Why Missouri State could win:
The Bears offense is NO JOKE. Four players with at least 90 at bats and an OPS above 1.000, a team slugging percentage of .558 and 70 home runs in 34 games; these numbers do not lie. I’m honestly shocked that Gonzalez was able to shut the Bears down as well as he did, and this is not a knock on Gonzalez’s game at all as he is an incredible pitcher. It’s more to speak on how difficult stopping this Missouri State offense really is, as the Bears’ two runs in the last set of the rivalry tie their lowest total all season (reached only once against Ole Miss on 2/22). The Bears’ last series saw four different players record home runs (3B/P Curry Sutherland, 2B Gabe Roessler, OF Taeg Gollert, & 1B Brant Kragel), and yet home runs only accounted for 15.7% of their total scoring. This offense is scary.
Player to Watch:
My player to watch for this game is Missouri P Keyler Gonzalez. As spoken before, Gonzalez’s pitching was critical to the Tigers emerging victorious last time these teams faced off and he will need to be on again against a truly dangerous lineup. The 5’11 junior from Santa Clara, Cuba is having a very solid first season for Missouri after pitching for Nova Southeastern prior. Gonzalez did have one rough outing against Texas A&M a couple weeks back, but in his other appearances the righty has been nothing short of spectacular; in 11 innings Gonzalez has only surrendered 1 earned run, striking out 15 with just 2 walks.
Editor’s Picks:
I went back and forth on this one a few times; in general I think it is a fantastic game and must-watch baseball. I really could see either outcome and may have even convinced myself; I love Gonzalez’s game and pitch mix but also think Missouri State’s offense is one of the best in the game. With the week of preparation, prior eyes on the pitcher, and what should be a raucous home environment I think the Bears will do just enough to break away and split the rivalry series on the year. Now please, do yourself a favor and get eyes on this game if you are able to.
