Top Picks for Friday 4/17 - Week 10

What a week it has been already in college baseball! The mid majors especially have been making some noise this week; #9 Virginia, #20 Florida and #21 UCF all went down to in-state mid major rivals (VCU, Bethune-Cookman, & Jacksonville). Not to mention, the #1 team in the nation UCLA was held scoreless at home by the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos to snap the 27 game winning streak and shock the world. Buckle up, because it should only get better over the weekend. #2 Georgia Tech and #3 North Carolina face off in a powerhouse matchup, #11 Alabama heads to #4 Texas, and #20 Florida will host #13 Auburn to highlight the top ranked matchups. The top mid-major matchups include Liberty @ Dallas Baptist, UAB @ South Florida, Nevada @ New Mexico, and rivalry series Gonzaga @ St. Mary’s. Now, onto the picks:

3:00 PM: Duke (22-17, 8-10 ACC) @ Boston College (28-12, 11-7 ACC)

I'll be backing the Eagles in a somewhat chalky pick here [-200, Draftkings], although I project the spread is likely to release around even money as an extra value play. A lot of this comes down to pitching matchup and recent momentum; BC’s projected starter is lefty AJ Colarusso (3.55 ERA, 41-15 K/BB) and Duke’s is Aidan Weaver (5.24 ERA, 57-18 K/BB). While Weaver has been excellent at putting batters down on strikes, Colarusso has been the more consistent option all season, and Bird Ball is 7-2 in Colarusso’s starts. Duke has also been incredibly cold as of late, winning just one of their last six and being outscored 64-29 in that span. The bullpen especially has been rough, getting rocked in their matchups against both NC State and Liberty. My recommendation here is to parlay this with my next pick, or to shop around a little and try to find a -1.5 spread that should have decent value.

7:35 PM: Liberty (26-10, 11-4 C-USA) @ Dallas Baptist (22-15, 11-4 C-USA)

This series should be a thriller and is one that will likely have tremendous playoff implications. After being a popular preseason choice to win the Conference USA, DBU has been outshined at times with the seasons that conference counterparts Liberty, Jax State, and Missouri State have had. The strength of Liberty’s team has been their pitching, and while Dallas Baptist may not measure up with their arms (staff ERA of 6.14 compared to Liberty’s 4.46) the bats are truly elite. Team OPS is sitting at .936 (over 100 points higher than Liberty’s) and they have slugged 73 home runs to Liberty’s 35. Liberty’s projected starter is Ben Blair (2.44 ERA, 71-15 K/BB) while Liam Watt (3.19 ERA, 35-9 K/BB) gets the nod for the Patriots. While DBU’s pitching has been inconsistent at times, Watt is the ace and the arm to bet on. Expect some regression from Liberty’s near-20 run midweek performance at Duke going into a travel spot. With Watt on the mound and this game being essentially even money in the home spot for DBU, this is an absolute smash play and my personal favorite play of the day. I love Liberty’s team this year but with the spot and value here I am backing DBU 1000%. [-115, Draftkings]

These are my top picks for the April 17th slate, more picks will be released throughout today and this weekend on our Instagram page @themidmajorrundownpod. I implore you to get eyes on all these games I mentioned if you can, there are some outstanding matchups this weekend!