CSUN vs SDSU Midweek Preview/Predictions
CSUN’s Matthew Thomas rounds the bases at Robert J. Hiegert Field. (Photo by Chuck Marvel/CSUN Athletics)
The San Diego State Aztecs (22-18, 7-5 Mountain West) will travel to Robert J. Hiegert Field to take on the Cal State Northridge Matadors (22-16, 11-10 Big West) this Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 5:00 PDT. San Diego State enters this contest having won their last three games, including a 9-5 win at home against Seattle on Monday. CSUN carries a two game winning streak into Tuesday, and has won three of their last four.
Projected Pitchers
Cal State Northridge: Soph. Gabriel Hernandez (5.17 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 33-8 K/BB)
San Diego State: TBD
Look for Hernandez to bounce back after a recent tough outing against UC Davis. The 5’10” righty has had excellent command of the strike zone this season, walking only 8 batters over 55 2/3 innings pitched. Hernandez held a respectable 4.42 ERA on the season heading into the UC Davis start last Friday, and had recorded wins in his last two starts prior to that one. The Aztecs have yet to announce a starting pitcher for Tuesday, and are likely to preserve their weekend arms for their upcoming series at Fresno State.
Why CSUN could win:
This is another example of a mid-major team with multiple guys who can consistently tear the cover off the ball. As of this writing, the Matadors have the Big West OPS leader in Matthew Thomas at an incredulous 1.225, the Big West batting average leader in Andrew Becker (.370), and Matthew Pena whose 40 RBI leads the conference as well. Additionally, Thomas and Pena are tied at the top of the Big West in home runs with 13 apiece. CSUN’s team OBP of .383 is atop the Big West, and they have scored the most runs in the conference with 261. The Matadors’ team OPS is fairly higher than the Aztecs’ (.892 vs. .803), and the Matadors hold a significant home run advantage as well (57 vs. 37). CSUN also gets the home spot with a day of rest, while SDSU is playing back-to-back and have not exactly been road warriors; the Aztecs are 6-12 away from home this season. Hernandez has the tools to deliver a solid pitching performance, and the bats are live as always to break this game open early.
Why SDSU could win:
The Aztecs are carrying some excellent momentum into the midweek, per their three game win streak I mentioned before. SDSU has outscored opponents 25-11 in these three games, and despite having just played the day prior they are generally well rested. Before the game against Seattle on Monday, SDSU had been on a 5 day break following their UC Davis series. They have also fared well against Big West competition this season; they have gone 5-2 in games against Big West opponents on the year. One of these wins includes a combined no-hitter against UC Riverside just two weeks ago on April 7th. Senior INF Tyce Peterson has been a star in his own right; Peterson leads his squad in OPS, home runs, extra base hits, runs batted in, and a number of other statistical categories. Peterson’s execution at the plate recently should be highlighted; in his last four games Peterson is 6-19 with 2 HR, 8 RBI, and 5 R. If the Aztecs’ bats can continue to produce quality at-bats and the bullpen stays hot, their winning streak could certainly be extended.
Player to Watch:
CSUN OF Matthew Thomas. Thomas has put up truly insane numbers this season and is one of just two Matadors to have started every game this season alongside Trent Abel. Thomas leads his team in doubles, triples, home runs, OPS, and like Peterson of the Aztecs numerous other statistical categories. More than half of the 6’3” Junior’s hits have been good for extra bases, and he has also been seeing the ball well recently with a .333 batting average and 2 home runs in his last 5 games. Thomas’s OPS of 1.225 places him 20th in the nation among qualified hitters heading into Tuesday’s slate. It is safe to say that Matthew Thomas’s bat has the potential to terrify opposing pitchers any time he stands in at the box.
Editor’s Picks:
I’ll be backing Northridge (-120, MGM) in this one. This offense backed by Thomas and Pena is simply too potent to pick against, and it doesn’t just stop at the star power. The Matadors have eight players with at least 90 at-bats who are hitting for a .300 batting average or higher. This is one of the most dangerous mid-major offenses in the entire country, and they have stars plus depth up and down the lineup who can produce. I also think Gabriel Hernandez has what it takes to subdue the Aztecs lineup, and will just need to eat some innings and allow the bullpen some breathing room. Add all of this to the Matadors’ day of rest and home spot, and I love their chances in this Tuesday night matchup.
